Last year has been an important turning point of the U.S. PV industry development.With the coming of 2023,the problem of COVID-19 related delays, trade enforcement, supply chain issues, and higher prices for PV components and transportation still exist.These adverse factors have led to the postponement and cancellation of many PV projects,and the project deployment did not meet initial expectations.

With the passage of U.S. landmark Inflation Reduction Act,there was renewed optimism for the PV sector in the second half of 2022.The bill allocates a record $369 billion in funding for climate and energy measures.Abigail Ross Hopper, CEO of the Photovoltaic Industry Association of America, calls the next 10 years the "PV plus decade,",the installed PV and energy storage systems are expected to continue growing,spurred by spending plans.So, what will happen in 2023?

As is the case with the new technology policy and adoption,the U.S. government will look to California as a typical case study for PV industry development.Specifically,Net energy metering(NEM) is a tool to measure the value of rooftop PV systems installed by residential users,it will again be a policy worth watching this year.The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) unanimously approved NEM 3.0 in 2022, which changes the payment mechanism for residential customers who install rooftop PV to send excess power to the grid.

According to new MEM 3.0,California residential customers who install rooftop PV projects after April 15, 2023 will receive 75 percent less electricity than under the previous payment mechanism.The destructive effect on customer value will lead to a decline in rooftop PV system installations.According to the forecast from the research department ROTH Capital Partners,the installed rooftop PV system capacity in California is expected to fall by 30% year on year from 2022.

The states of the U.S. are watching the residential PV industry development of California closely,to see how the states reply to the loss of PV system value.It is expected that the installation peak will come out before the April of this year, as many California residential customers rush to install rooftop PV systems before the adoption of NEM 3.0.The installation capacity of rooftop PV system may reduce rapidly after April.That's what happened in Nevada in 2017, when the state made a similar cut in net metering for the PV industry.

California will serve as a testing ground to prove whether the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) is correct in its judgment that adoption of photovoltaic systems plus battery storage will grow as net energy metering (NEM) is cut. Recent analysis suggests that adoption rates are unlikely to increase because the new mechanisms undermine end-user value. Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Vermont and many other states have had their NEM policies changed or blocked in the last year, and 2023 could be a key year for implementing the policy.

The Inflation Reduction Act sets aside a record $369 billion to support climate and energy goals. It will take some time to implement, as the photovoltaic industry will need to sort through finer details to meet certain requirements in the bill to qualify for significant tax credit benefits and more value.

U.S. President Joe Biden said he will continue to work with PV industry stakeholders to know how to adopt this law. The U.S. government recently sent a guide, to help the PV suppliers deal with the complexity of their mass products.

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